Research Design

The foundation of any successful Delphi study lies in clear research design. This section covers formulating your research question and developing the theses that experts will evaluate.

A well-designed research question and carefully crafted theses ensure your Delphi study is focused, methodologically sound, and capable of generating meaningful insights.

Step 1: Formulating Your Research Question

Defining a precise research question is the most important first step. A clear question ensures your Delphi is relevant, focused, and methodologically sound.

Identify a Broad Topic

Start by choosing an area that matters to you—this could be a societal challenge, an emerging technology, or a personal interest.

Example: Digital transformation in public health

Explore Existing Literature

Review academic papers, policy reports, and trend studies to map what's already known and where the gaps are. This literature review will:

• Reveal what research already exists
• Identify knowledge gaps your Delphi can address
• Provide theoretical foundation for your study
• Help justify your methodology choice

Narrow the Focus

Ask yourself these critical questions to refine your scope:

• Who or what exactly am I studying?
• In which context or region?
• Over what timeframe?
• Are there specific technologies or trends I want to explore?

Formulate a Clear, Researchable Question

Your question should be specific, relevant, and feasible. It must require expert judgment rather than empirical data alone.

Good example: "Which technologies will revolutionize public health by 2035?"

Step 2: Developing Delphi Questions and Theses

Once you have a clear research question, it's time to develop strong Delphi theses or questions that experts will evaluate. This is where your study takes concrete shape.

Brainstorm Initial Ideas

Use mind maps or whiteboards to generate possible future statements. These can be broad, provocative, or even extreme at first—refinement comes later. Think creatively and don't self-censor during this phase.

Conduct an Extensive Literature Review

Validate your ideas against the latest foresight literature and industry reports. This ensures your theses are grounded in current knowledge while exploring new frontiers. Look for academic papers, white papers, and expert opinions that support or challenge your initial ideas.

Conduct Expert Interviews

Talk to experts to refine your perspectives and discover hidden angles. These preliminary conversations can reveal nuances you might have missed and help ensure your theses resonate with practitioners in the field.

Host Expert Workshops (Optional but Recommended)

Run a small workshop to co-create and review your theses. This helps ensure clarity and balance, while giving you early validation from potential panel members. Workshops are especially valuable for PhD-level research.

Practical Example: Five Delphi Theses

For our example research question "Which technologies will revolutionize public health by 2035?", we developed these theses:

1. Artificial intelligence as the main decision-support tool in public health systems
2. Digital twins reshaping disease prevention and early interventions
3. CRISPR reducing or eliminating major diseases
4. Wearables as the foundation of predictive health monitoring
5. Blockchain enabling secure, interoperable health data infrastructures

Guidelines by Academic Level

Each thesis should be relevant (addresses your research question),provocative (stimulates expert reflection), and clear(unambiguous and specific), inviting experts to think critically rather than simply agree or disagree.