Introduction to the Delphi Method

Welcome to the Delphi Academy! This comprehensive guide will help you master the Delphi method, a powerful research technique for achieving expert consensus and making informed decisions.

This academy focuses on conducting Delphi studies using Durvey.org—a modern platform that streamlines the entire process from expert recruitment to paper-ready analysis. You'll learn the history and evolution of the Delphi method, core principles and theoretical foundations, when and why to use Delphi in your research, and how to leverage features like real-time feedback, anonymous participation, sentiment tracking, and integrated analysis tools.

What is the Delphi Method?

The Delphi method is a structured communication technique originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The technique involves multiple rounds of questionnaires sent to a group of experts, with anonymous feedback provided after each round.

Brief History

Developed in the 1950s by the RAND Corporation, the Delphi method was initially created for military forecasting purposes. The name "Delphi" derives from the Oracle of Delphi in Greek mythology, emphasizing the method's focus on predicting the future and seeking wisdom.

Since its inception, the method has evolved and been adapted for various applications across multiple disciplines, including healthcare, education, technology forecasting, policy-making, and business strategy.

Why Use the Delphi Method?

Advantages

• Eliminates geographical constraints—participate from anywhere
• Reduces groupthink through anonymous participation
• Allows time for thoughtful reflection
• Encourages honest opinions with confidential responses
• Achieves expert consensus systematically
• Rich qualitative insights through comments and reasoning

With Durvey.org

• Real-time and classical Delphi modes
• Built-in invitation and reminder management
• Anonymous expert participation
• Comment with pro/contra sentiments
• Interactive features (like comments, rate statements)
• Integrated analysis with paper-ready outputs

Key Characteristics

The Delphi method is characterized by four key features:

1. Anonymity: Participants' identities are concealed from each other, reducing the influence of dominant individuals and encouraging honest responses.
2. Iteration: The process involves multiple rounds, allowing participants to refine their views based on collective feedback.
3. Controlled Feedback: After each round, participants receive a summary of the group's responses, enabling them to reconsider their positions.
4. Statistical Aggregation: Group opinions are aggregated statistically, providing a clear picture of the consensus level.