What is the Delphi Method?

A comprehensive look at the structure, process, and variations of the Delphi method.

Definition

The Delphi method is a structured forecasting and decision-making process that uses a series of questionnaires to gather information from a panel of experts. Through iterative rounds with controlled feedback, the method aims to achieve convergence of opinion on a specific topic.

Core Components

1. Expert Panel

A carefully selected group of individuals with relevant expertise in the subject matter. Panel size typically ranges from 10 to 50 experts, though this can vary based on the research question and available resources.

2. Multiple Rounds

The process typically involves 2-4 rounds of questionnaires. Each round builds upon the previous one, with participants having the opportunity to revise their opinions based on group feedback.

3. Anonymous Responses

Participants submit their responses anonymously, which helps eliminate bias from dominant personalities, reduces peer pressure, and encourages honest, independent thinking.

4. Controlled Feedback

After each round, participants receive statistical summaries of the group's responses, allowing them to compare their views with the collective opinion and adjust accordingly.

The Delphi Process Flow

1. Round 1: Open-ended questions to gather initial insights and identify key themes (qualitative)
2. Round 2: Structured questionnaire based on Round 1 results, asking experts to rate or rank items
3. Round 3: Participants review group statistics and have the opportunity to revise their responses
4. Round 4 (if needed): Final round to achieve consensus or document remaining disagreements

Delphi Variants Supported by Durvey.org

Durvey.org specializes in the two most widely-used and effective Delphi approaches:

Classical Delphi

The traditional format with multiple rounds of questionnaires and controlled feedback between rounds. Experts receive group statistics after each round closes and can revise their opinions in subsequent rounds.

Best for:

• Research requiring clear round demarcation
• Studies with strict methodological requirements
• Academic research and dissertations

Timeline: 6-12 weeks with 2-3 structured rounds

Real-Time Delphi

Continuous feedback and updates—experts participate on their schedule while seeing live statistics. As more experts respond, the group consensus evolves in real-time. This modern approach significantly reduces study duration while maintaining rigor.

Best for:

• Time-sensitive research
• Modern, dynamic expert panels
• Faster consensus-building

Timeline: 2-6 weeks with continuous participation

Real-Time Delphi is Durvey's specialty. Experts can see updated consensus, comment with pro/contra sentiments, like other comments, and explain their reasoning—all in one streamlined interface.

Other Delphi Variants (Reference)

While Durvey.org focuses on Classical and Real-Time approaches, you may encounter these variants in academic literature:

• Modified Delphi: Begins with a structured questionnaire based on literature review, skipping the initial open-ended exploration round.
• Policy Delphi: Emphasizes exploring diverse viewpoints rather than achieving consensus—useful for controversial policy topics.

What Makes Delphi Different?

Unlike traditional surveys or focus groups, the Delphi method:

• Iterative: Multiple rounds allow participants to refine their thinking based on group feedback
• Anonymous: Reduces bias and social pressure—experts rate freely without revealing identity
• Flexible: Experts participate on their own schedule from any location
• Consensus-driven: Aims to find areas of agreement while documenting dissent
• Evidence-based: Participants justify positions with comments and reasoning
• Interactive: With Durvey, experts can add pro/contra sentiments, like comments, and engage with reasoning

Durvey.org Features